300k is plenty. Don't listen to the CEO!

"Zoooooowch!" A severe pang rang in the minds of many during the big conference call over at Electronic Arts today. In the stifling call bad news struck a chord with announcements ranging from numerous delays, along with more layoffs, and the ugly truth behind the less than stellar subscription numbers for Warhammer Online. As of December 31st, 2008 Warhammer: Age of Reckoning bottomed out at a little over 300k subscribers.

When a MMOG first launches can make or break your MMOG. It's the milestone month and the verdict is in for Warhammer Online. The 300k mark is a bit bleak, but the game won't die off anytime soon. Taking a look back, the end of that first month Warhammer Online peaked at 750k subscriptions. A staggering amount, but usually most MMOGRPG subscription bases follow a pattern. If the game is a huge success the subscription count will continue to rise for at least the first few months - maybe even the year.



In some cases like witnessed with Warhammer Online there's a huge drop off after initial interest wanes. Subscriptions will plateau and the MMOG will face an uphill battle to gain subscriptions before entering the retention phase. Unless of course you are Blizzard Entertainment, and their phenomena that best describes World of Warcraft is monopolizing the entire MMOG fantasy genre. A juggernaut with 11.5 million subscribers that continues to climb an amazing four years later.

The bad news is that Mark Jacobs, Mythic Entertainment CEO admitted Warhammer Online needs to sustain 500k subscriptions to be considered a success. In an interview discussing the competitive nature of the MMOG business shortly after Warhammer's launch Mark Jacobs divulged the following sentiment:

"I would say we don’t have to get anywhere near that number to be considered successful. Would I like us to be number one? Well, of course. Do we have to be number one to be successful? No. I want us to be no less than number two; that would make me very happy.

Let’s just say north of half a million would mean we’re successful. Now how a far north? I wouldn’t mind being a little bit cold.”

Is the 300k subscription count terrible? Nah, but it's not the fantastic result Mythic Entertainment and EA hoped for. It's a solid number for a niche MMORPG like Warhammer Online, but it's disappointing. We are talking about Warhammer, the intellectual property is renown around the world. It's ripe for ass kicking, it screams potential, and its breadth of possibilities holds no bounds. An MMOG based off the Warhammer IP should easily sustain 500k subscriptions. Even Mythic Entertainment's earlier MMOG, Dark Age of Camelot sustained that many subscriptions in its heyday. The current count is well above direct competitors like Age of Conan and City of Heroes.